江南布衣顾九

 

　　美元昨日欧洲盘中陡然跳水，跌幅一度近1%，最多时跌至与瑞郎平价。由此也带动金价狂飙至1180美元上方，再创新高。不过油价表现平平，仅勉强持平。

     为了抑制经济过热、对抗不断增大的通胀压力，时隔10个月，越南25日宣布重启加息，将基准利率上调1个百分点。这也是亚洲第一个加息的经济体。

　　今后，住房、交通、通讯补贴将纳入职工工资总额，并缴纳个税。财政部在近日下发的《关于企业加强职工福利费财务管理的通知》，明确了上述政策。（小时候看闪闪的红星，里面说“刮民党万税”，哎。）

　　昨日，《关于加快发展旅游业的意见》获得国务院通过；对于旅游产业的重视首次上升到中央战略级别，也引起了相关产业的广泛关注。专家表示：国家有意把旅游业培育成国民经济的战略性支柱产业，对国家产业结构调整和包括旅游在内的整个大消费崛起有相当的导向作用，将首先体现在旅游经济板块，并令酒店、交通运输、消费等产业相继收益。

　　由环球资源《世界经理人》杂志、中国社会科学院工业经济研究所及中国产业与企业竞争力研究中心25日联合发布的一项调查显示，34％的中国制造商认为中国经济正处于向上增长态势，15％的中国制造商认为世界经济已经走出“冬天”，这说明制造商对中国经济比对世界经济更乐观。

　　11月25日，中国指数研究院对全国60个城市的监测显示，全国住宅用地供应量和成交量连续9个月呈增长态势。从土地供应情况来看，今年1-10月份全国60个城市共推出住宅用地15733公顷，同比增加25%。住宅用地累计供应量超过去年同期水平，连续9个月呈增长态势。四季度是传统土地供应高峰期，预计未来两个月将迎来新一轮供地潮。从土地成交情况来看，前10个月份全国60个城市共成交住宅用地12843公顷，同比增加50%。住宅用地成交量连续9个月呈增长态势，且在10月进一步扩大。同时，在房企重启IPO之后，增加土地储备成为房企当务之急。从土地交易价格来看，1-10月份全国住宅用地平均楼面价格稳中有升，地块溢价水平较高。8月份住宅用地平均楼面价接近2000元/平方米，9月份高达2691元/平方米。10月份平均楼面地价出现回落，平均2165元/平方米，环比下跌20%。

      作为今年颇受关注的一宗跨国油气资产收购交易，中石油集团与哈萨克斯坦国家石油公司（KMG公司）联合收购哈国曼格什套油气公司一事在今年8月因故推迟。但昨天晚间，中石油宣布已完成了此次联合收购案。

　　深圳起家的房地产开发商花样年昨日正式登陆香港股市。首日收盘报2.22港元，比招股价涨2.29%。至此，内地房地产公司赴港上市融资已逾300亿港元。9月以来，先后有恒盛地产、宝龙地产、卓越置业、恒大地产、禹洲地产、明发集团、龙湖地产、花样年等内地房企进行招股，从最后成功上市的内房股来看，实际募集资金合计逾300亿港元。

      11月25日，山东黄金宣布将以不超过2.09亿元的价格竞购集团公司公开挂牌出售的三山岛金矿区外围地质普查探矿权。消息一出，市场旋即报以大涨。昨日，山东黄金以76.7元开盘，经一路上涨，终报收于涨停价84.39元，在k线图上留下一根长阳。

New-home sales unexpectedly climbed in October despite bad weather and uncertainty over a big tax credit for first-time buyers.（老美的房地产市场真是跌宕起伏啊。）Sales of single-family homes increased 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated a 1.0% drop to a 398,000 annual rate.The median price for a new home fell in October, but not by much, dropping 0.5% to $212,200.Some analysts thought the looming expiration of an $8,000 tax credit for home buyers would scare off buyers in October. New-home sales, unlike sales of existing homes, are recorded with the signing of a sales contract and not the closing. There was also unseasonable cool and wetness in parts of the U.S. last month.The tax credit has since been extended by Congress through April, a move made earlier this month that is seen helping the housing market.Wednesday's report said sales in September fell 2.4% to 405,000. Year over year, sales were up 5.1% since October 2008.Inventories shrank some more. There were an estimated 239,000 homes for sale at the end of October. That represented a 6.7 months' supply at the current sales rate. An estimated 250,000 homes were for sale at the end of September, a 7.4 months' inventory.Commerce's report Wednesday showed October new-home sales fell in most regions but were up in the South.

Stocks remained higher in afternoon trading Wednesday, led by the materials and consumer-discretionary sectors as better-than-expected data on the consumer, housing and manufacturing prompted investors to move away from the safety of the dollar and toward riskier areas of the market.

Consumer spending and incomes rose in October, while initial jobless claims fell under 500,000 last week to the lowest level since September of 2008, boding well for economic growth in the fourth quarter.

But demand for long-lasting goods unexpectedly fell in October, brought down by the defense sector, and a barometer of capital spending by businesses tumbled in another sign of the recovery's sluggishness.

Commerce Department data Wednesday showed spending last month rose by 0.7% compared with a September decline of 0.6%, while personal income rose by 0.2% for the second straight month.

The core price index for personal consumption expenditures, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose a monthly 0.2% in October and by 1.4% year-on-year.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast consumer spending would rise by 0.6% in October while income would increase by 0.1%. The core PCE index was seen rising by a monthly 0.1%.

The U.S. economy's rebound was softer than originally thought in the third quarter, the government said Tuesday in a revision to its gross domestic product estimate which showed less consumer spending than initially estimated.

U.S. GDP -- the broadest measure of output of goods and services -- grew at a 2.8% annual rate during the July to September period, less than the 3.5% rate calculated by the Commerce Department a month ago.

Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of U.S. economic output, increased at a 2.9% annual rate during the third quarter -- less than the 3.4% estimated previously.

Wednesday's report was an encouraging sign for growth in the fourth quarter, since both consumer spending and incomes rose by more than expected in October.

Economists currently expect slightly better economic growth in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months. One prominent forecaster, Macroeconomic Advisers, predicts GDP growth of 3.1%.

Personal income data for the previous months was revised up slightly. It rose by 0.2% in September and by 0.3% in August, the report showed, compared to previous estimates of a flat reading in September and a 0.1% increase the previous month.

Still, with more than 10% of the U.S. labor force out of work, the rise in incomes remains moderate.

Federal Reserve officials earlier this month raised their expectations for growth this year and in 2010, but predicted the recovery will be so slow that unemployment will remain high and inflation low until the end of next year.

As for price gauges in Wednesday's report, the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, year over year, rose 1.4%. The year-over-year gain in September was 1.3%.

The Fed watches this core PCE index closely for signs of inflation pressures. Fed officials see core inflation around 1.45% in 2009, 1.25% in 2010, and 1.3% in 2011.

On a monthly basis, Wednesday's report showed the core PCE index increased 0.2% in October compared to a 0.1% increase in September.

The PCE price index including food and energy prices rose 0.3% in October compared to September. It rose a monthly 0.1% in September. Year over year, the PCE price index was up 0.2% in October after falling 0.6% in September.

Jobless Claims Drop

In a glimmer of hope for the labor market, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits last week fell to the lowest level since September of 2008. Total claims lasting more than one week, meanwhile, also decreased.

Initial claims for jobless benefits declined by 35,000 to 466,000 in the week ended Nov. 21, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Wednesday. The previous week's level was revised to 501,000 from 505,000. This represents the lowest figure for claims since September 13, 2008 and it is the first time initial claims have fallen below the 500,000 mark since early January, according to Labor Department data.

Last week's initial claims fell by more than economists expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a decrease of 10,000 claims.

The four-week moving average of new claims, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, also fell by 16,500 to 496,500 from the previous week's revised average of 513,000. That is the lowest figure since November 8, 2008.

Economists widely expected initial claims would fall in Wednesday's report, and some believe that this the break away from the 500,000 mark will be sustained in the weeks to come.

"Taken as a whole, the labor market data for the US is suggesting we are in a gradual, steady improvement towards job growth at some point over the next three to six months and the decline in jobless claims is consistent with that," said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Global Economics. "The trend has been very persistent since the end of August and we are expecting that to continue."

In the Labor Department's Wednesday report, the number of continuing claims -- those drawn by workers for more than one week in the week ended Nov. 14 -- declined by 190,000 to 5,423,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,613,000.

The unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance for the week ended Nov. 14 was 4.1%, a decrease of a 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.3%.

The largest increase in initial claims for the week ended Nov. 14 was in Florida due to layoffs in the construction, trade, service and manufacturing sectors. The largest decrease in initial claims occurred in California.

Jobless claims data is normally released by the Labor Department on Thursdays, but this week it came out a day early due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Durable-Goods Order Fall

Manufacturers' orders for durable goods decreased 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted $166.17 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Military goods demand plunged. Excluding defense, all other durables increased by 0.4% in October, after going 1.8% higher in September.

Still, if not for a jump in commercial airpline bookings, the drop in overall durables would have been much greater.

While generally negative, the report Wednesday had a few bright spots. September durables were revised way up, for instance.

A key number in the monthly data, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, fell, by 2.9%, after increasing 2.6% in September. The orders are seen as a proxy for capital spending by businesses.

While the economy stopped shrinking last summer, the recovery is expected to be slow, because unemployment has topped 10%. Last week, the government said U.S. home construction fell sharply in October, an unexpected drop that erased months of gains.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had projected overall durable goods orders would climb 0.5% in October. Some manufacturers have boosted orders to slow their inventory liquidation and rebuild depleted stockpiles of goods. The Wednesday data showed manufacturers' inventories of durable goods were unchanged in October, ending a string of declines. The last three reports on the sector by the influential research group the Institute for Supply Management have showed manufacturing expanding.

Cars, radios, and coffee makers are durables, goods meant to last at least three years. Coming out of the severe recession, durables year to date were down 23%, in unadjusted terms, from the same 10-month period in 2008. Overall durables in September rose 2.0%, adjusted from a previously revised 1.4% increase.

US Airways said this week it plans to defer the delivery of 54 Airbus jets, in a bid to improve liquidity and ease its strained finances. The deferral will reduce the company's aircraft capital expenditure by about $2.5 billion over the next three years. The economy has hurt airline revenues.

A sign within Wednesday's data of future demand for durables, unfilled manufacturers' orders, fell, by 0.4%, the 13th drop in a row.

Durable-goods shipments of manufacturers fell 0.2% last month.

Orders for transportation-related goods climbed 1.5%, pushed by a 50.8% jump in non-defense planes. Motor vehicle orders dipped 0.1%, despite the success of the government's incentive program "cash for clunkers" last summer.

Excluding the transportation sector, orders for all other durables decreased 1.3% in October. Demand ex-transportation had climbed 1.8% in September.

Orders last month for metals and electrical equipment rose. Computers and machinery fell.

October capital goods orders decreased 2.0%. Non-defense capital goods -- items meant to last 10 years or longer -- rose 1.2%. Defense-related capital goods orders went down by 18.4%.

 

 

The U.S. Federal Reserve revised its qualification criteria for regional directors' affiliations and financial holdings, in the wake of the resignation of Stephen Friedman as chairman of the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York amid a controversy about his dual roles as a director of the regional Fed bank and a director and shareholder of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.According to the revised policy, Class B and C directors affiliated with a company that becomes a "financial affiliation company" during the director's term must resign from the company or resign from the Fed's board within 60 days. That period begins when the director becomes aware of the affiliation or the board informs the Fed of the company's change in character.The director, during that time, would also be "required to recuse himself or herself from all duties related to service as a Reserve Bank director until the affiliation is severed," the Fed said.Meantime, a key gauge of prices that is closely watched by the U.S. Federal Reserve to set monetary policy reiterated inflation wasn't a threat as the economy recovers slowly.

Seeking to avoid political issues that sidelined previous merger efforts, the philanthropic trust overseeing Hershey Co. has sought the blessing of the Pennsylvania attorney general for a potential $17-billion bid for Cadbury PLC, said several people familiar with the matter.

General Motors Co. Wednesday said it will keep all four German Adam Opel GmbH plants open, but that the future of an Opel plant in Antwerp, Belgium is "uncertain" as the company moves to restructure its European operation.

President Barack Obama will attend a global climate summit in Copenhagen next month, where he will lay out specific targets for curbing greenhouse-gas emissions.The decision ends weeks of speculation over whether the president would attend the event and marks the first time that the Obama administration has offered to commit to concrete goals on emissions.

 

The problem is that fast economic growth does not always correspond to big investment returns, Kinniry said. For example, the average annual growth of China's gross domestic product since 1995 has been about 10 percent, more than three times the U.S. GDP growth rate of 3 percent a year during the same period. However, China's rapid economic growth has not translated into similarly outsized stock market gains. The average annual gain in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index was 9 percent, less than GDP growth. By contrast, stock returns in the United States, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, were more than twice GPD growth, at 7 percent.

Now, the problem many investors face is that a year ago, fearing financial Armageddon, they pulled their money out of the stock market after suffering huge losses and put it into cash and Treasuries. Then this year, many missed the run-up in stock prices and are feeling a frantic need to play catch-up. Both reactions are mistakes, experts said, because the only way to succeed in the long term is by developing a balanced investment strategy that one can sleep with even in the worst of times and then stick with it.

William Poole, an economist and former chief of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, spoke Tuesday to about 500 people at DeSales University in Center Valley about "The Crisis After the Financial Crisis." The first contributor to a potential follow-up crisis is the federal budget, which calls for spending more than it takes in. Deficit spending and adding to national debt are likely to grow as the nation copes with the demographics of an aging population. The second contributor to a potential crisis is the implicit guarantee that Uncle Sam won't allow large financial institutions to fail. The third contributor to a potential crisis is the threat of rampant inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

上市公司	金属储量
铜（万吨）	江西铜业	1228

    

云南铜业	294
铜陵有色	195

                

                

                

                

                

                

                

                

铅锌（万吨）	中金岭南	674
宏达股份	650
驰宏锌锗	370
西部矿业	500
中色股份	150
黄金（吨）	紫金矿业	704
中金黄金	334
山东黄金	185
辰州矿业	40
恒邦股份	26