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November 14 一地鸡毛之捣糨糊的meeting 嗯,九爷在的这个team里头的老外,还行吧,至少不追求。啥叫不追求呢,就是不追求case competition要进第二轮,那样就比较好了。今天一共meeting了两个小时不到就ok了,我靠,九爷觉得,你们下结论也太快了吧。虽然九爷不想玩这个,但是总得有个合适的因果关系和逻辑推理才能得出结论啊,结果发现外国人不讲这个,实在是太彪悍了。彪悍的人生不需要理由,可是,九爷的英语又实在不足以特别nb地向外国人灌输我的理念,悲剧啊。 November 13 一地鸡毛之要闻091113 胡锦涛就深化中新互利合作提出6点建议。第一,保持高层交往势头。两国领导人往来密切是中新关系的显著特点,为两国关系持续发展奠定了坚实政治基础。第二,充分发挥双边合作机制作用。利用好这些机制,着眼长远,不断拓展和深化各领域交流合作。第三,深化经贸合作。继续做好苏州工业园区和天津生态城两个政府间合作的旗舰项目。结合中新自由贸易协定实施,拓展中国企业在新加坡投资兴业的途径和空间,探讨开展环境保护、循环经济等领域合作。第四,扩大人文合作。这次两国有关部门要签署新的人才合作协议。两国教育、文化领域交流活跃,将合作建设新加坡第四所公立大学并在新加坡设立中国文化中心。为庆祝明年两国建交20周年,中方愿向新加坡提供一对大熊猫进行合作研究。第五,加强防务安全合作。希望双方加强交流,提升合作水平,大力开展人道主义救援、海上联合搜救、维护马六甲通道安全、反恐等非传统安全领域合作。第六,密切多边合作。中方支持双方就世界经济形势发展变化和应对经济全球化带来的挑战开展研讨。
国务院总理温家宝12日在京表示,当前,中国经济回升向好的趋势不断得到巩固,但仍然面临不少困难和问题。我们将进一步加强和改善宏观调控,正确处理好保持经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构和管理好通胀预期的关系,继续实行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,增强政策的灵活性和可持续性,更加重视提高经济增长的质量和效益,促进中国经济平稳较快发展。 11月9日,穆迪宣布由于在过去一年的经济动荡期,中国仍能保持其宏观经济表现坚挺、强劲和相对稳定,因此决定将中国的评级展望从稳定转为正面。 昨日,国家发改委、民航局共同发布有关《通知》,宣布国内航线燃油附加费与航油价格自14日起实施联动,增收与否的基准油价为每吨4140元。《通知》指出,当综合采购成本高于该价格时,航空公司有权自主确定燃油附加费的具体标准和出台时间。 截至11月11日,BDI指数(波罗的海综合运费指数)达到3748点,较此前低点涨幅达73.3%。 国家旅游局最新发布的监测数据显示,2009年三季度,全国星级饭店的营业收入、利润和房价同比均继续下跌,其中平均房价下降超过10%,利润更大幅缩水过半。但与此同时,由于经济形势好转和季节性因素,各项营业指标的环比情况已经连续两个季度上升。 韩国中央银行——韩国银行12日举行的金融货币委员会例会决定,继续将基准利率维持在目前2%的水平,这是韩国央行连续第九个月维持利率不变,也符合市场预期。 澳大利亚政府昨日公布的数据显示,该国10月份新增就业人数2.45万人,而此前市场的普遍预计则为负值。同时,这也是该数据连续第二个月录得意外强劲的增长。而就在前一天,韩国和英国也公布了向好的就业数据。市场分析人士认为,对大部分国家而言,失业潮的拐点或将到来。当日的数据显示,澳大利亚10月的失业率经季节因素调整后录得5.8%。2008年2月至今年年初,该国失业率从3.9%的低点不断上升,但今年3月以来,已经止跌企稳于5.7%至5.8%间。 受人民币升值预期强化影响,上证B指连续3日跑赢A股大盘,昨日更与深证B指双双创出年内反弹新高。统计数据显示,有33只个股昨日刷新年内新高,占B股总量近三成;其中,重组概念、迪士尼概念、以家电及汽车为代表的消费类板块成为资金主要的追捧对象。 外电日前援引消息人士的话称,中央汇金拟出售总值高达800亿人民币债券,发债所募得的资金将注入中国进出口银行及中国出口信用保险公司。其中进出口银行有望获得120亿美元的注资,而出口信保则有望获得40亿美元。不过,汇金及其母公司中投的有关人士均表示对此消息不予置评,中国进出口银行人士也表示,目前该行改革的方案正待审批,对于细节问题尚不知情。 公开市场显然正处在年内资金回笼力度最大的时期。在国庆节后的短短五周时间内,央行累计净回笼资金近6000亿元,相当于一个百分点的存款准备金率上调所冻结的资金量,但是资金市场对此反应平静,资金价格稳步下行。昨天,央行在周四公开市场回笼了1200亿元资金,令本周资金回笼量升至2010亿元,与上周基本持平,对冲到期释放的1200亿元资金后,实现了810亿元的净回笼。这是央行自国庆长假以后连续第五周从市场净回笼资金。在这短短五周时间内,央行回笼资量已超过万亿大关,达到11250亿元,对冲释放资金后,实现5700亿元的净回笼。
November 12 一地鸡毛之要闻091112国家统计局11日公布数据显示,10月份我国居民消费价格(CPI)同比下降0.5%,环比下降0.1%。10月工业品出厂价格(PPI)同比下降5.8%,降幅比上月缩小1.2个百分点,原材料等同比降幅更大。
索罗斯厚朴老虎一干资本大鳄吞吃民生H股,民生银行最新披露,公司分两步斥资参股的美国联合银行控股公司(UCBH)已被关闭,在对其累计投资的8.87亿元人民币中,已根据盯市原则计提减值损失8.24亿元。剩下未计提的税前6300万元对净利润的最大影响为5000万元左右,银行日常经营及利润不会受到重大影响。
央行在11日公布的《2009年第三季度货币政策执行报告》中建议,进一步完善资本市场运行机制,为居民提供更多的财产性收入渠道,如发展多种形式的员工持股、股权激励制度,以及划拨国有股做实个人养老金账户等方式提高居民参与资本分配的程度,使社会各阶层能更加均衡地享受企业利润增长的收益和经济发展的成果。这是央行首次在货币政策执行报告中对于改善国民收入分配格局提出建议。
央行11日发布的《第三季度货币政策执行报告》称,将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,并根据国内外经济形势和价格变化,把握好政策的节奏和力度,增强政策的灵活性和可持续性,妥善处理支持经济平稳较快发展与防范化解金融风险的关系,注意管理好通胀预期,提高金融可持续支持经济发展的能力,维护金融体系健康稳定运行。报告强调,下一阶段,央行将根据经济金融形势和外汇流动的变化情况,合理安排货币政策工具组合、期限结构和操作力度,保持银行体系流动性合理适度,促进货币信贷合理增长。尽管外汇流动变化毫无疑问是央行货币政策的考量因素之一,但在货币政策执行报告中提出尚属首次。
国家外汇管理局日前宣布,在试点的基础上进一步扩大了个人本外币兑换特许业务试点。本次扩大试点的内容包括:一是将试点范围扩大到包括北京、上海在内的13个省市自治区和4个计划单列市;二是增加特许经营机构数量,鼓励特许经营机构在试点地区内跨地区设置分支机构连锁经营;三是简化兑换手续,对于单笔500美元以下的小额兑换业务,允许经营机构先办业务,事后在个人结售汇管理信息系统补录;四是兼顾合规性和便利性,明确细化对特许经营机构的监管要求。
10月份,金融机构人民币新增贷款回落至2530亿元,为去年10月份以来单月增加额的最低值。截至10月末,今年共计新增人民币贷款达8.92万亿。
海关总署昨日公布的数据显示,今年1至10月,我国对外贸易累计进出口总值17554.9亿美元,比去年同期下降19.9%。其中出口9573.6亿美元,下降20.5%;进口7981.3亿美元,下降19%。累计实现贸易顺差1592.3亿美元,减少27.2%。10月当月,我国外贸进出口总值为1975.4亿美元,同比下降10.7%;其中出口值1107.6亿美元,连续第4个月超千亿美元,但同比仍下降13.8%;进口867.8亿美元,同比下降6.4%。
尽管10月份的新增信贷小幅回落,但货币供应量仍然升势不改,M1、M2再度携手冲击历史新高。央行11日发布的数据显示,10月末,广义货币供应量(M2)同比增长29.42%,狭义货币供应量(M1)同比增长32.03%。
来自上海“网上房地产”的数据显示,上海一手商品住宅的可售量跌破500万平方米关口,仅余486.61万平方米、33654套。按11月以来周均近50万平方米的去化速度计算,仅相当于10周的销售量;按10月23430套的成交量计算,更是只够卖1个半月。
受惠于大市交易及新股上市步伐加速,全球第二大上市交易所——港交所第三季度净利润按年增长33%,符合市场预期,但平均每日成交额却按季回落。 数据显示,港交所三季度实现净利润12.74亿港元,较去年同期的9.56亿港元劲增33.26%,略高于市场预期;前三季度实现净利润34.75亿港元,较去年同期的39.34亿港元倒退11.67%。今年第三季度,港交所平均每日成交金额同比上升5%,至667亿港元,但较第二季的714亿港元则下跌6.6%,反映投资者在股市复苏中仍持有谨慎态度。
汇丰三季报理想,刺激金融股全线飙升,推动港股午后进一步走强,恒指收市再创逾15个月新高。截至收盘,恒指报22627.21点,涨359.05点,涨幅1.61%;国企指数报13460.43点,涨93.24点,涨幅0.7%;红筹指数报4141.09点,涨64.95点,涨幅1.59%。大市全日总成交额放大至722.64亿港元。 一地鸡毛之要闻091111eMotorola Inc. is exploring a roughly $4.5 billion sale of its business making set-top boxes and other equipment for cable and phone companies, according to people familiar with the matter, the latest chapter in the struggling tech giant's effort to turn itself around. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday that maintaining a strong dollar is "very important" for the country's economy, sticking to his mantra on foreign-exchange policy as the U.S. currency continues its broad downtrend."I believe deeply that it's very important for the U.S. and the economic health of the U.S. that we maintain a strong dollar," he said at a roundtable discussion with Japanese reporters. "We bear special responsibility for trying to make sure that we are implementing policy in the U.S. that will sustain confidence not just among American investors and .. savers but investors around the world" that the U.S. will fix its budgetary problems as its economy improves. Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Wednesday the country's central bank has bought about $15 billion so far this year to support the falling greenback and that the persisting weakness of the Chinese yuan will likely require further intervention by Asian central banks.Korn said that while Asian countries have benefited from China's robust economy, the weak yuan that fuels China's growth also forces Asian central banks to curb their own currencies to maintain competitiveness. Pacific Rim finance ministers will call for flexible foreign exchange rates while trying to map out ways to unwind massive economic-support measures as recovery from the global downturn takes hold, according to a draft statement being prepared for a regional summit."We agreed that flexible prices, including exchange rates and interest rates, play a critical role in allocating resources efficiently and can facilitate the adjustments needed to support balanced and sustainable global growth," ministers of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum say in the draft, seen Wednesday. Robert Benmosche has told the board of American International Group Inc. that he is considering stepping down as chief executive of the government-controlled insurer, just three months after taking the job, according to people familiar with the matter. The picture for China's exports continued to improve in October, new data show, a sign that global demand is starting to support the nation's growth as its enormous surge in bank lending cools off. The recovery has even gotten strong enough to spark a warning on future inflation from the central bank.Exports still fell; they were down 13.8% from a year earlier in October, China's Customs agency said Wednesday, but that was a smaller decline than the 15.2% in September and 20%-plus drops earlier in the year. Adjusting for the smaller number of working days in October this year, Customs said exports would be down 9.1% from a year earlier.China's exports hit bottom in February, and the nation is now exporting about $110 billion worth of goods a month, roughly as much as it did in late 2007. Taiwan and South Korea, two other Asian exporters that have already reported trade figures for October, also saw narrowing declines in their exports for the month, providing additional evidence that demand from the rest of the world is rising from its recent lows. The Bank of England is likely to keep policy steady for an extended period amid what is expected to be a "slow" U.K. economic recovery and subdued inflation.BOE Governor Mervyn King said "the need for a credible plan to ensure a substantial reduction in the fiscal deficit is now clear to everyone." The slowest harvest season in decades across the Midwest and South forced the U.S. Agriculture Department to trim its huge production forecasts and raise its price outlook for everything from corn and rice to cotton. The USDA said in its monthly crop report Tuesday that it expects U.S. corn farmers to harvest 12.9 billion bushels, down 1% from its October forecast.While corn production would still be the second highest on record, and up 7% from last year, demand for corn to make things such as ethanol fuel is so strong that the department's economists raised the price they expect U.S. farmers to receive on average to $3.55 a bushel, give or take 30 cents. That is up 6% from the one-month-old forecast. Key Senate Democrats Tuesday said it is unlikely there will be any more major committee action on climate-change legislation this year, the strongest indication yet that a comprehensive bill to cut greenhouse-gas emissions won't be voted on until at least next year. ING Groep NV, on the verge of a planned split-up mandated by the European Union in return for it receiving state aid, said Wednesday that it swung to a third-quarter net profit.The Dutch financial-services company said the results were helped by improving investment markets, and added it aims to focus on growth opportunities at its banking business. Net profit in the three months to Sept. 30 was €499 million ($747.5 million), compared with a net loss of €478 million a year earlier and in line with a preliminary €500 million given Oct. 26. The preliminary figures were given when the company announced plans to shed its insurance business, its U.S. online bank and some Dutch retail banking operations, while launching a €7.5 billion rights issue.Chief Executive Jan Hommen said ING wants to repay the remainder of the €10 billion of state aid it has received and concentrate on its growth strategy. It plans to pay back €5 billion before year end and repay the rest "quite early," Mr. Hommen said. The European Commission said Wednesday that it fined 10 chemical companies a total of €173 million ($259.1 million) for allegedly fixing the prices of heat stabilizers in two separate cartels. Heat stabilizers are chemicals used in plastic products to increase their heat resistance and rigidity and protect products from discoloration. The commission found that between 1987 and 2000, 11 companies in the sector fixed prices, shared customers and allocated markets for the plastic chemicals. The companies include Akzo Nobel; Baerlocher; Ciba, now owned by BASF SE; Elementis; Arkema France, now part of Elf Aquitaine; GEA; Chemson; Faci; Reagens and AC Treuhand. The dollar rebounded from near 15-month lows against some of its major rivals Wednesday, after investors who ran up big gains overnight in the euro and other higher-yielding currencies took profits. But the U.K. pound remained under pressure after overnight comments from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King continued to reverberate through markets. Mr. King said in a press conference accompanying the BOE's quarterly inflation report that recent sterling weakness would be supportive for an export-led recovery. The euro has retreated from overnight levels at which the euro neared its 2009 high at $1.5064 to around late-Tuesday levels. 一地鸡毛之不就是个case competition么 多大点事,我还以为抢鸡蛋呢。
老美一个比一个认真,我艸,其实就是一帮人在那里瞎扯淡。 November 11 一地鸡毛之赚点小钱,十四块。 嗯,今天赚了点小钱,十四块。为啥呢,上operation的课,做一个beer game,老师让每个人拿出1美元,赢的team就能够通吃。九爷当年读彼得圣吉的第五项修炼时,对于这个game就有点印象,同时在space上还写过相关的读后感,感兴趣的可以去查九爷07年上半年的space哈。然后,就赢了,就赚了些钱。也好,也能吃顿肉了。
不过,这个第五项修炼九爷还是想再好好看看,现在九爷总觉得,要读的书那么多,可是时间那么少。
还有,对于这个beer game,如果人们仅仅是从supply chain这个角度来理解,那就太狭窄,太可惜了。其实,从某种角度上而言,这是人类过度反应,对调整生效时间有误解的一种趋势。当然,从理论上说,是construture造成了这种问题,等我下回重读第五项修炼的时候,再思考下吧。 一地鸡毛之要闻091111国资委主任李荣融日前接受中国经济网专访时表示,国资委将按原计划的2010年中央企业减少到80-100家的目标推进央企调整和重组,欢迎民企、外资及地方国资委参与央企重组,并积极推动央企上市。数据显示,国资委目前管理的履行出资人职责的中央企业仍有132家,与2010年把央企调整和重组至80至100家的目标相去甚远。对此,李荣融强调,“我们将按照原计划推进。不管用哪种形式,都应该把央企调整和重组搞好,重组调整目标不能变。”(典型的逻辑错误)两个月前,中国生物技术集团公司与中国医药集团总公司实行联合重组,拉开了医药板块央企重组的序幕。而就在昨日,中国兵器装备集团公司和中国航空工业集团公司对外宣布,将联手对长安汽车集团进行重组,汽车行业的央企重组浪潮由此开始。分析人士认为,下一步央企调整和重组的领域主要集中在能源、航空、交通、通信等行业。 近日,中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席胡锦涛作出重要指示,强调要在总结各地实践经验的基础上,进一步完善符合中国国情的农村基层治理机制,包括建立健全既保证党的领导又保障村民自治权利的村级民主自治机制。日前,中共中央政治局常委、中央书记处书记、国家副主席习近平,中共中央政治局常委、中央纪委书记贺国强,中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理回良玉等也作出指示,肯定邓州农村创造的“四议两公开”工作法是基层建设的制度创新之举,是党领导的村级民主自治机制的有效实践形式,要求将这一好经验在全国农村推广,并在推广中不断完善。 新华社自主研发的综合金融信息服务系统“新华08”10日正式推出伦敦金属交易所实时行情服务,成为伦敦金属交易所在中国境内授权的首家实时行情提供商。 中国兵器装备集团公司、中国航空工业集团公司10日在京签署协议重组长安汽车集团,这是迄今为止央企之间规模最大的汽车产业战略重组。重组后的长安汽车成为国内生产基地最广的汽车企业集团,汽车产销规模接近200万辆。根据重组方案,中航工业以其持有的昌河汽车、哈飞汽车、东安动力、昌河铃木、东安三菱的股权,划拨兵装集团旗下的中国长安汽车集团;兵装集团将旗下中国长安汽车集团23%的股权划拨中航工业。两集团重组成立新的中国长安汽车集团股份有限公司,兵装集团持股77%,中航工业持股23%。重组后的汽车集团将在东北、华北、华东、华中、西南、华南六大生产基地,并在马来西亚、越南、伊朗、乌克兰等国家建有海外基地,整车生产能力达到220万辆。 国家统计局昨天公布的数据显示,受房屋销售量和价格双双走高的带动,今年以来开发商房屋开发热情逐月升温,房屋新开工面积在10月出现年内首次同比正增长,达到8.14亿平方米,增幅为3.3%。而10月土地购置面积则改变了持续数月的环比上升趋势,由9月的2820万平方米降至2621万平方米,降幅为7%。 国家统计局昨天公布的1—10月全国房地产市场运行情况显示,10月份,全国70个大中城市房屋销售价格同比上涨3.9%,涨幅比9月份扩大1.1个百分点;环比上涨0.7%,涨幅与9月份相同。 工信部组织制定了《促进钢铁企业兼并重组指导意见》,明确提出通过兼并重组,重点培育3-5家具有较强国际竞争力,积极推进6-7家具有较强实力的钢铁企业集团在全国范围内实施战略性兼并重组。 近日,销售电价本月中旬有望上调的说法在业内不胫而走。市场人士普遍预期,电价上调之后,部分大宗商品的生产成本将有明显提高。在这一朦胧题材的刺激下,反应历来敏感的期市投机资金将目光瞄准了PVC。昨天,大连商品交易所PVC期货全线飘红,主力合约1001收盘报6960元/吨,较上一交易日结算价大涨220元,涨幅达3.26%。 央行昨通过周二公开市场回笼资金810亿元,比上周增加近200亿元。其中,央行发行了210亿元一年期央行票据,收益率为1.7605%,与上周持平;央行继续对28天回购品种进行了正回购操作,正回购量为600亿元,比上周增加200亿元,收益率依然保持不变,为1.18%。 农行10日公布的第三季度财务状况显示,该行前三季度净利润497亿元,同比增长13%。9月末,该行不良贷款余额1063亿元,较年初下降273亿元;不良贷款率2.65%,较年初下降1.67个百分点,不良贷款余额和占比继续双降。全行拨备覆盖率上升至103.2%,较年初提高39.7个百分点,风险覆盖能力大为增强。根据银监会对国有银行财务重组后的监管指标要求,目前,农行各项指标已全面达标。 数据显示,9月末,农行资产总额达8.60万亿元,比年初增加1.58万亿元,增长22.6%;负债总额8.27万亿元,比年初增加1.55万亿元,增长23%;所有者权益3262亿元,比年初增加356亿元,增长12.3%。9月末,境内机构本外币各项存款(不含同业存款)余额7.42万亿元,比年初增加1.32万亿元;本外币各项存款付息率为1.55%,比2008年和上半年分别下降43和7个基点。9月末,境内机构本外币各项贷款余额4.02万亿元,比年初增加9394亿元,增长30.5%。前三季度,全行本外币各项贷款平均收息率为4.94%,较上年下降221个基点,较上半年下降6个基点,贷款收息率下降势头趋缓,见底迹象初步显现。法人客户贷款中,优良客户贷款余额占比87.8%,比年初上升3.1个百分点;中小企业贷款余额1.58万亿元,新增2945亿元,服务中小企业力度进一步增强。个人贷款新增2352亿元,增幅达50.7%。9月末,三农金融事业部本外币存款(含同业存款)余额达2.84万亿元,比年初增加4168亿元;各项贷款余额达1.18万亿元,比年初增加3190亿元。惠农卡累计发卡量达到2967万张,比年初增加2157万张,完成全年计划的94%;贷款余额568亿元,比年初增加521亿元,惠及农户260万户。 November 10 一地鸡毛之英国人真nbhttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6908835.ece Many see China’s engagement in Africa as a catastrophe for the continent. There is a widespread perception that saintly Britain had adopted this poor little girl called Africa and was busy saving her from hunger, war, disease and poverty. Suddenly big, greedy China, flashing huge deals and cheap goods, has seduced the girl and is leading her astray, even raping her. And to make it worse for Britain, ungrateful Africa sometimes feels that although Chinese intentions may not be entirely honourable, China at least treats her like a grown up. 一地鸡毛之要闻091110eEuropean antitrust authorities formally objected to Oracle Corp.'s proposed purchase of Sun Microsystems Inc., complicating a $7.4 billion deal that U.S. officials had already blessed. John Grayken, the head of real-estate private-equity giant Lone Star Funds, wants to raise $20 billion to buy pools of troubled mortgages and other kinds of distressed debt. To get the money, Mr. Grayken is doing what once would have seemed outlandish for a brand-name deal maker like Lone Star: He is cutting some of his fees by more than 50%.The concession by Lone Star, which has performed better in the aftermath of the boom than many of its peers, illustrates the rising clout of real-estate investors and the property-fund industry's struggle to regain credibility after a disastrous year. Barclays PLC, one of the few British banks not to resort to a multibillion government bailout, posted a 54% fall in third-quarter net profit as impairment charges continued to weigh, although they will peak earlier than expected.Net profit for the three months to Sept. 30 declined to £1.08 billion ($1.81 billion) from £2.33 billion a year earlier. Pretax profit, a measure closely watched by analysts, fell to £1.56 billion from £2.84 billion. The year-earlier result included a £1.5 billion gain from its acquisition of Lehman Brothers operations in North America. HSBC Holdings PLC said Tuesday its third-quarter underlying pretax profit was "significantly ahead" of a year earlier, helped by lower loan provisions and continued strong performance in its corporate and investment-banking division. Chief Executive Michael Geoghegan said economic conditions are still challenging and that public trust in banks "has been seriously compromised," but that the bank has kept its strong deposit base and is still attracting new customers. Lloyds Banking Group PLC said Tuesday it plans to cut 5,000 jobs at its group operations, insurance and retail divisions to help eliminate overlap following its acquisition of HBOS earlier this year.The move means Lloyds is on track in meeting its target of £1.5 billion ($2.51 billion) in cost savings from merging HBOS and Lloyds, a spokesman said. Democrats are advancing proposals in Congress designed to limit the size and complexity of financial companies so that any collapse wouldn't damage the broader economy, a sign that lawmakers are responding to anti-Wall Street sentiment by toughening the administration's rewrite of finance rules.The proposals would allow the government to break up healthy financial companies, and in some cases, would reassert rigid demarcations within finance that were cleared away in 1999, such as barring commercial banking firms and investment banking firms from merging. The International Energy Agency Tuesday said a new global deal to limit carbon emissions, if reached in coming months, could sharply curtail the growth in oil consumption in the years ahead as alternative energy resources and efficiency measures are tapped.Global crude demand may grow by just four million barrels a day from current levels to 89 million barrels a day by 2030 if a major agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions is signed and implemented by nations, the Paris-based agency said in its annual World Energy Outlook.Such a reduction in the growth in oil consumption, representing just a fractional increase from current consumption of about 85 million barrels a day, could play a key role in keeping a lid on future crude prices. Without any new climate change deal and developments in nonoil transport technology like electric vehicles, global oil demand by 2030 is expected rise to 105 million barrels a day, which represents a downward revision of 1 million barrels a day from the IEA's forecast a year ago.Oil prices are expected to rise to $100 a barrel by 2020 and $115 a barrel by 2030, the IEA said in its report. That is up from a current level of around $79 a barrel, but well below a record $147 hit in July 2008. The chief executive of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. said Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is liquidating its stakes in rival railroad companies Norfolk Southern Corp. and Union Pacific Corp., as Berkshire prepares to close its purchase of Burlington Northern. Chancellor Angela Merkel said Tuesday that Germany's main bailout fund could be "adjusted," pledging to combat the effects of the economic crisis that she warned will get worse before it gets better.In her first major policy speech since her new center-right government took office, she told parliament that the brunt of the economic crisis will hit the country in 2010, particularly through rising unemployment. 一地鸡毛之要闻091109eStocks continued to surge and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit one new 2009 high after another on Monday, helped by a flow of cheap money.The Dow was recently up 194 points, or 1.9%, to 10217.42. The measure is on pace for a fourth straight daily gain and a new closing high for the year. (悲剧啊,九爷总觉得反弹到头了,就清仓了,实在是太悲剧了。)Twenty-nine of the blue-chip measure's 30 components traded higher. Kraft Foods was the lone exception, off 1.2% after Cadbury rejected a hostile bid from the food giant. Among the Dow's big winners were American Express, up 4.8%, followed by Caterpillar, which surged 4.1%. General Electric was also sharply higher after The Wall Street Journal reported the conglomerate and Comcast have settled on how to value NBC Universal, clearing a key obstacle to giving Comcast control of GE's television and movie company, according to people familiar with the matter. U.S. financial firms continued to tighten standards on household and business loans in the third quarter, despite receiving billions in government aid, according to a Federal Reserve survey.The survey, released Monday, showed that as some banks are continuing to make it difficult for consumers and companies to obtain credit--the net percentages of banks that tightened standards and terms for most loan categories continued to decline from the peaks reached late last year. Google Inc. agreed to acquire AdMob Inc., which runs a mobile-advertising network, for $750 million in stock, stepping up its push to sell advertising on cellphones.AdMob, a start-up founded in 2006 by business-school student Omar Hamoui, serves targeted mobile ads for small companies and large advertisers like Coca-Cola Co. and Procter & Gamble Co.(像AdMob这样的商业模式,能用在中国么?) Cadbury PLC emphatically rejected a £9.8 billion ($16.28 billion) hostile bid from Kraft Foods Inc., setting up what could be a lengthy tussle for control of the British confectioner. 一地鸡毛之要闻091110国内成品油价今天零时起每吨上调480元,折合93号汽油价格的涨幅约每升0.36元,折合0号柴油的价格涨幅约为每升0.41元,上海沪IV93号汽油每升则大涨0.71元。
国家统计局城市社会经济调查司司长魏贵祥9日指出,9月我国CPI、 PPI继续保持同比降幅收窄,环比上涨但涨幅渐小的态势,这种发展态势还将延续一段时间。
上海证券交易所副总经理刘啸东透露,国际板上市规则正在制定,会先设立试点进行推出。刘啸东表示,外国公司在中国上市和发债需要一定时间才能完善,先期范围将锁定在包括红筹股在内的相关国际知名企业。刘啸东还表示,国际板上市条件首先考虑企业在华有无实际业务,在国际板上市是否对这个企业发展带来好处,而绝不是简单的融资行为,以保证国际板的健康发展。
国务院日前正式批复同意天津市调整滨海新区行政区划,标志着滨海新区行政管理体制改革全面启动。 9日召开的天津市滨海新区管理体制改革动员大会上,记者了解到,国务院批复了天津市报送的《关于调整天津市部分行政区划的请示》,同意撤销天津市塘沽区、汉沽区、大港区,设立天津市滨海新区,以原塘沽区、汉沽区、大港区的行政区域为滨海新区的行政区域。新的滨海新区人民政府将坐落在新港街道新港二号路。
目前秦皇岛港煤炭库存量已经突破800万吨的警戒线,而其价格却“不降反升”,普涨了10-20元不等。对此,分析师也普遍乐观预计,四季度乃至明年初的煤炭市场将持续高位运行,或许今年电煤合同价再次上涨。其中,发热量6000大卡/千克的大同优混平仓报价为每吨670-690元,发热量5500大卡/千克的山西优混每吨630-650元,均较上周上涨了10元。另外,发热量4000大卡/千克的普遍混煤更是较上周涨了15-20元,报价每吨达430-450元。值得一提的是,较10月初,上述煤价累计涨幅每吨达50元左右。
10月份全国土地市场交易进一步放量,但成交价格下调。随着传统供应旺季的到来,多个城市出现供地高峰,住宅用地成交量进一步扩大,连续9个月环比增长。从土地成交情况来看,住宅用地交易量连续9个月环比增长。10月份全国60个城市共成交土地800宗,环比增加22%,同比增加225%;成交土地面积4432万平方米,环比增加52%,同比增加292%。其中,住宅用地成交337宗,环比增加11%,同比增加5倍;成交土地面积2319万平方米,环比增加25%,同比增加7倍。从成交价格来看,10月份住宅用地楼面价格出现回落,住宅用地平均楼面地价为2165元/平方米,环比下跌20%。
天津铁合金交易所9日正式开业,这是我国第一家铁合金交易所,同时也填补了国内外铁合金电子交易平台的空白。
国际能源署(IEA)日前在一份《世界能源展望》草案中称,全球天然气市场将面临过剩,这使得油气价格联动会减弱。这份草案预计将于11月10日发布。
保利地产、金地集团、新城B同步公告10月份经营简报,三公司营收总额继续保持翻倍增长,拿地积极性居高不下。
中色股份今日披露,近日,公司控股的中澳资源有限公司(下称“SARCO公司”)与老挝服务有限公司(下称“LSI公司”)签订了《关于在老挝人民民主共和国占巴塞省帕克松地区进行铝土矿勘探和开采的协议》。根据协议,双方同意在LSI公司已从老挝政府获取勘探许可证的占巴塞省帕克松地区铝土矿区块共同投资,进行铝土矿勘探和经济技术可行性研究。该获批区块面积为66平方公里。
上海汽车今日宣布,旗下合资汽车、自主品牌汽车销量均保持高速增长,今年前10月累计销售整车218.8万辆,同比增长51%,成为国内首家销量突破200万辆的汽车企业。 November 09 一地鸡毛之何须浅碧深红色,自是花中第一流《鹧鸪天·暗淡轻黄体性柔》 暗淡轻黄体性柔,情疏迹远只香留。 何须浅碧深红色,自是花中第一流。 梅定妒,菊应羞,画栏开处冠中秋。 骚人可煞无情思,何事当年不见收。 一地鸡毛之要闻091109美国国际贸易委员会6日初步裁定,对从中国进口的铜版纸、从中国进口的焦磷酸钾、磷酸二氢钾和磷酸氢二钾征收“双反”关税,即反倾销和反补贴关税。商务部新闻发言人姚坚7日在天津举行的“2009中国国际贸易学会暨国际贸易发展论坛”上介绍,目前全球35%的反倾销调查和71%的反补贴调查针对中国出口产品。今年前三季度,有19个国家对中国产品发起88起贸易救济调查(其中反倾销57起,反补贴9起,保障措施15起,特保7起),涉案总额102亿美元,同比分别增长29%和125%。(九爷评:古人云,祸兮福之所倚,福兮祸之所伏。如果日益严重的关贸壁垒可以促进中国踏踏实实地调整经济结构,摆脱单纯依赖人口红利的发展方式,那就是天大的好事。)
今年前10个月,我国期货市场的成交量为16.5亿手,成交总金额为99.7万亿元,同比分别增长53.4%、65.8%,继续保持较快增长势头。截至10月底,期货市场的投资者开户数约为86.5万户,客户保证金近1000亿元。
国家发展和改革委员会副主任解振华昨日在第四届中日节能环保综合论坛上表示,节能环保产业是战略性新兴产业,是新的经济增长点,发展前景广阔,预计到2012年,中国节能环保产业总产值将达2.8万亿元。
纽约原油6日收跌2.75%,报每桶77.43 美元,跌至一周低点。华尔街日报当天公布的数据也证明了这一点:10月份流入大宗商品市场的新资金为22亿美元,为7月份以来最低,2008年11月以来第二低位。据华尔街日报的数据显示,第一季度流入大宗商品市场投资产品的资金大约为220亿美元,第二季度下滑至170亿美元,第三季度为110亿美元。迄今为止,总金额为500亿美元的流入量是2008年流入总量的3倍以上。
澳大利亚央行6日上调了该行对通货膨胀和经济增长的中期预期,并表示可能还需要进一步逐步解除货币刺激措施。
莱钢股份、济南钢铁今日双双发布停牌公告,称山东钢铁集团正筹划对两公司进行重组。
分析人士称大秦铁路有望在年内获得铁道部相关资产的注入。市场普遍预期,此次注入的资产将包括太原铁路局剩余资产和铁道部持有的朔黄铁路公司股权。不过公司尚未披露此次重大事项的具体内容。
交通银行金融研究中心7日发布的《2009-2010年中国银行业发展报告》指出,2010年,预计我国经济将较快增长,银行贷款增速将回归与经济发展相匹配的水平,净息差继续略有回升,资产质量较为稳定,中间业务收入增速加快,银行业有望实现20%左右的盈利增速。
中投公司对外投资的力度似乎正在进一步加快。公司日前宣布,已通过其全资子公司向美国爱依斯电力公司(AES Corporation)投资15.8亿美元,以每股12.6美元的配售价格购买该公司1.255亿股股票。
一地鸡毛之要闻091108eThe House narrowly passed its sweeping health bill late Saturday, marking the biggest victory yet for Democrats in their drive to create near-universal health insurance.
The widening investigation of insider trading on Wall Street is expected to examine transactions at Steven A. Cohen's SAC Capital Advisors, one of America's largest and most successful hedge funds, according to people familiar with the matter.
Finance ministers and central-bank heads from the Group of 20 leading economies approved a timetable for agreeing polices that will rebalance the global economy at their meetings Friday and Saturday.But they failed to make progress on the question of how to finance developing countries' efforts to combat climate change, adding to the challenge of reaching a comprehensive deal when members of the United Nations meet in Copenhagen next month.As expected, G-20 governments agreed to keep their stimulus measures in place, despite signs that the global economy is in recovery. The finance officials are preparing to move beyond crisis management, which has given the G-20 its new role as the body responsible for running the global economy.
The Group of 20 leading economies should consider applying a global financial transactions tax to pay for the cost of future banking crises, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Saturday.Mr. Brown said G-20 members should discuss whether they need some kind of "insurance fee to reflect systemic risk or a resolution fund or contingent capital arrangements or a global financial transactions levy."Indeed, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said his government wouldn't support that approach.
Condé Nast Publications Inc. aims to continue adding more magazine titles in China, already a top-five global market for the U.S. publisher, the head of its international arm said.
U.S. regulators closed five more banks on Friday, reaching 120 for the year, as souring loans and the lingering effects of last year's financial crisis continued to weigh on the nation's financial institutions. November 08 一地鸡毛之宏观经济学心得等 前言:话说啊,今天是要写一些关于货币,也就是money相关的东西。总体而言,九爷为什么目前这么热衷于研究宏观经济学,总体而言,还是觉得,想要做好投资,就必须对宏观经济形势有一个清晰的认识,否则就是瞎猜。或者说,九爷目前为止,还是信奉所谓的top down的研究方法。当然,由于经济学并不是完备的科学,所以,九爷虽然自己觉得自己懂了,但是九爷真的懂了么?有没有over confident?这些都是值得推敲的。科学的态度,就是不进行简单的两分法,而是三分,即对,不对,不知道对不对,这是t领导反复向我强调的。但是,如果更加准确的说,其实是两分,那就是不对,不知道对不对。昨天被yujian等同学叫去打牌,睡得晚了,今天没精神写长篇大论,姑且引读到的一个例子来说说货币的一点点东西吧。
今天读财经谢国忠的文章,其中有一段:“现代经济学认为,货币刺激是熨平经济周期颇为有效的工具。虽然关于货币政策为何有效不乏理论支持,但是,这背后有一个肮脏的小秘密,即这种作用是通过资产市场价格上升来实现的。通过做大风险资产估价,导致了更多的债务需求,又进一步转化为需求增长。也就是说,货币政策通过制造资产泡沫来生效。这类刺激产生的结果将很难扭转。如果想完全逆转,需要家庭、企业和政府部门共同减少债务,恢复到刺激政策实施之前的水平。”(引自:http://magazine.caijing.com.cn/templates/inc/chargecontent2.jsp?id=110278927&time=2009-10-11&cl=106)
这一段中,货币政策的作用如何实现的,就与九爷的思考不一致。谢认为,货币刺激会做大风险资产估价,导致债务需求,从而转化为需求增长。但是九爷却认为,货币刺激先降低人们的储蓄愿望并刺激了人们的举债需求,而人们举债之后,一部分资金会进入实际的生产投资,另一部分则是流入风险资产,抬高风险资产的价格。有趣的是,九爷认为的因果关系和谢认为的完全相反。当然,很多经济现象是一个正反馈的过程(It's natural ponzi scheme,isn't it? Actually, so many economic phonomena have positive feedback in the process. Ponzi or Madeoff scheme is just a standard positive feedback.如果九爷有时间,会想想如何写一个关于正反馈的文章),所以,谢也许也是对的,嗯,世界就是这么奇妙,我也对,他也对,为啥呢?嘿嘿,自己想去。当然,九爷上述仅是自己的理解,候教方家。
November 07 一地鸡毛之要闻091106eU.S. unemployment rose by more than expected in October to hit its highest level in more than 26 years and employers cut more jobs than forecast, a sign the labor market continues to struggle as the economy emerges from its deep recession.Nonfarm payrolls fell by 190,000 last month, with the largest job losses in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. Economists had expected a 175,000 decrease.The unemployment figures for October strengthen the Federal Reserve's view that interest rates should remain at record lows to bolster a fragile recovery.In the past, the Fed has started to hike interest rates only several months after the jobless rate peaked.
Warren Buffett's Omaha, Neb., holding company posted net income of $3.2 billion in the third quarter, up from a $1.1 billion gain last year.
Book value, assets minus liabilities and a commonly used measurement to value the far-flung conglomerate, rose 10.1% from the previous quarter to $81,247 per Class A share. Berkshire's book value per share fell 9.6% in 2008, its biggest one-year drop since Mr. Buffett started running the company in 1965. President Barack Obama said his economic team was examining additional infrastructure spending, energy-efficiency incentives, business tax cuts and other measures to spur job creation to deal with the highest unemployment rate in 26 years.
一地鸡毛之要知天道酬勤--写在邱峻胜李昌镐后 在前两天结束的三星杯半决赛中,邱峻2:1战胜昔日的王者李昌镐,中国棋手包揽冠亚军。李昌镐输棋,似乎已经不是新闻,昔日的王者,在岁月这个最大的敌人面前,总是无可奈何的,风流总被雨打风吹去。而邱峻的胜利则让人感慨,就冲邱峻的形象,那简直,说句不礼貌的话,绝对像是码头扛大包的。而邱峻的棋才,也是出名的不天才,但是就是这样的棋手,就是靠着自身的勤奋努力,居然也能战胜李昌镐。邱峻的胜利,只是印证了一个道理,要知天道酬勤。
嗯,要知天道酬勤亦酬智! November 06 一地鸡毛之要闻091106工业和信息化部运行监测协调局和中国社会科学院工业经济研究所5日联合发布的《2009年中国工业经济运行秋季报告》显示,前三季度我国主要工业行业呈加快回升态势。报告显示,原材料工业受投资拉动回升明显。前三季度,我国原材料工业增加值同比增长9.3%,增速从一季度的5.1%加快到9月份的16.5%,4月份以后各月增速平均以2个百分点左右的上升幅度直线攀升。装备工业在投资拉动和政策支持下保持较快增长。前三季度,我国装备制造业增加值同比增长11.2%,比上半年加快2个百分点。其中,交通运输设备增长13.6%,比上半年加快4.8个百分点;通用设备制造行业增加值同比增长8.9%,比上半年加快1.6个百分点;专用设备制造行业增加值同比增长11.6%,比上半年减缓0.8个百分点。消费品工业立足国内市场增长平稳。前三季度,我国消费品工业增加值同比增长9.7%,其中一季度增长7.8%,二季度增长10.5%,三季度增长11.8%,9月当月增速达到13%。电子制造业缓慢回升但仍处低位运行。受出口大幅萎缩影响,前三季度,我国电子制造业增加值同比仅增长1.8%,其中一季度下降5.3%,二季度增长4%,三季度增长5.7%;出口交货值下降10.3%,比上半年缩小1.1个百分点,出口交货值占行业销售产值的比重由去年同期的68.3%下降到63.2%。
工业和信息化部总工程师、新闻发言人朱宏任昨日在“中国工业经济运行秋季报告发布会”上称,四季度规模以上工业增加值有望进一步增长,“初步预计会达到16%左右的增长速度。”朱宏任称,十大产业振兴规划实施一年来,效果是非常明显的。从工业领域来说,今年一季度,规模以上工业增加值增速为5.1%,二季度为9.1%,三季度为12.4%,四季度有望进一步增长。
销售电价上调和上网电价区域调整方案有望本月内出台,根据方案,电网平均销售电价将上调2.5分左右,同时,燃煤电厂标杆上网电价将进行调整,东部电厂将下调,西部电厂将上调。
《10月国内化工品排行榜》显示,计入统计的40余种化工品中,价格上涨的有23种,占63.53%,下跌的仅8种,占20.51%,且跌势都未超过10%。上月保持上涨态势的23种化工品中,二氯甲烷、三氯甲烷排名居前。从7月下旬起,受出口因素影响,二氯甲烷价格一路走高。到上月,山东市场二氯甲烷净水价格已跃至4300元/吨,广东桶装货更达5300—5400元/吨,市场整体看涨。
美国贸易代表办公室4日发表声明宣布,美国已与欧盟和墨西哥一起,要求世界贸易组织设立专家组,审理和裁决所谓中国限制原材料出口的问题。美国贸易代表办公室称,中国限制出口的原材料包括铝土矿、焦炭、氟石、镁、锰、金属硅、碳化硅、黄磷和锌等。
香港金管局周四将基础利率维持在0.50%的水平不变,追随美联储隔夜保持联邦基金目标利率不变的决定。
今年前三季度,全国进口乘用车上牌量为24.6万辆,同比增长16.9%。同期,海关汽车进口量为25.2万辆,同比下降19%,降幅较上半年有所收窄。
国家邮政局昨日发布了2009年第三季度邮政行业经济运行情况通报。数据显示,今年前三季度,邮政企业和规模以上快递企业业务收入累计完成798.3亿元,同比增长12.1%;业务总量累计完成1192.4亿元,同比增长15.3%;快递业务收入累计完成342.6亿元,同比增长14.8%
巴西最大的国有石油公司——巴西国家石油公司(Petroleo Brasileiro SA)北京时间前天晚间宣布,该公司和中国方面已就100亿美元贷款换石油签署了最终协议。由此,中国有望到2010年底从巴西获得最少1000万吨原油/年。
10 月全国60 个重点城市共成交土地800 宗,环比增加22%,同比增加225%;成交土地面积4432 万平方米,环比增加52%,同比增加292%。其中,住宅用地(包括纯住宅用地及含有住宅性质的综合性用地)成交337 宗,环比增加11%,同比增加500%;成交土地面积2319 万平方米,环比增加25%,同比增加700%。成交宗数排在前三的城市分别是杭州70宗、宁波69宗、天津54宗。与此同时,10月多个城市出现供地高峰。60 个重点城市共推出土地982 宗,环比增加8%,同比增加94%;推出土地面积5348 万平方米,环比增加24%,同比增加169%。其中,推出住宅类用地386 宗,环比增加9%,同比增加174%;推出土地面积2954 万平方米,环比增加24%,同比增加264%。
国家开发银行副行长蔡华相5日在2009中国国际金融年度论坛上表示,作为一家中长期贷款银行,国开行业务对象集中于政府类客户和大宗项目,业务比较单一,同时人员不多,机构网点也只到省级,因此该行既没有条件也不可能变成储蓄性商业银行。
本周公开市场实现净回笼资金1230亿元,再度保持千亿元回笼量级。昨天,央行在公开市场回笼资金1460亿元,令本周公开市场资金回笼总量达到2080亿元。对冲到期释放资金后,净回笼1230亿元,比上周略减100亿元。央行昨在公开市场发行了660亿元三个月央行票据,利率水平与上周持平。同时,央行再对91天回购品种进行了正回购操作,正回购量为800亿元,收益率保持不变。当天银行间回购市场资金供给略有紧张,导致资金价格再度出现攀升。但是,其原因主要在于招商证券新股发行。由于当天7天回购正好满足机构网下新股配售对资金期限的要求,当天该品种上涨了近8个基点,至1.4421%。
November 05 一地鸡毛之苏联笑话一则 用前苏联笑话自嘲一下:上帝赐予人三种品质,聪明,真诚,有党性。奈何三者不得兼备。聪明且真诚者,无党性。有党性且真诚者,不聪明。有党性且聪明者......
九爷党性坚强,政治坚定......永远跟党走...... 一地鸡毛之懒人没肉吃 有多久没吃过肉了?似乎,也不是太长的时间,上个星期,嗯,或者是再上个星期,我应该做过一回排骨汤,那是九爷第一次做排骨汤,照例,味道不错,但是让九爷有一种想吐的感觉。真的,不是说笑话,九爷每次做饭,味道不坏,就是让自己想吐。yujian同学上回尝我做的红烧肉,那确实是我第二回做,结果得到了好评,但确确实实地说,九爷自己吃的时候很想吐。总归没有那种味道,那种姆妈做的红烧肉或者蹄髈汤的味道,真的作孽的。
但是,九爷从九月底到现在一个多月的时间,就吃过一回肉,很想吃肉啊,但是自己又懒得烧。最近一个月,要么就是速冻饺子,要么就是面,我艸,我快变成北方人了,真是受不了。但是做米饭就得炒菜,实在是懒得,懒得,懒得。
懒人没肉吃,但是还是想吃肉。嗯,就是肉包子也行啊,不过北方的肉包子我可不爱吃,tm馅里头有大葱!
我还想吃红烧大肠,冰糖元蹄,鲫鱼汤,鸡汤,百叶结放在红烧肉里头烧烧,还有常州的素鸡,放在红烧肉里头烧烧,还有炒蚕豆,炒毛豆,炒苋菜,炒茼蒿,炒青菜,炒水芹菜,水芹菜炒豆腐干,笃豆腐,炒豆腐,炖豆腐,常州大麻糕,常州蟹壳黄,还有牛肉粉丝汤,当年三块钱一碗吃得可tm香了,还想吃老顾同志烧的面拖蟹,还有炒螺蛳,靠,我绝对是吃螺蛳专家,还想吃清蒸白鱼,金花菜烧河豚,......反正吧,就是啥都没有。
有的人,扯淡的人肯定说,艸,美国很多都有,那跟九爷没关系。有的不会做或者不想做,没有的就更谈不上,更何况,即使有,九爷也不愿意浪费那个时间,九爷还要研究宏观经济学呢。所以,以上的统统是九爷想吃的但是吃不到的。家常菜比啥都好吃,什么鱼翅鲍鱼燕窝,我艸,其实吧,也就是那么回事。
真饿了,晚上又吃的面,我艸,受不了了,我还想吃烤鸭,还想吃涮羊肉,还想吃水煮鱼,还想吃烤鱼,还想吃海底捞,还想吃菌汤火锅,还想吃盐水鸭肝,还想吃琥珀桃仁,还想吃毛血旺,还想吃俏江南的芝麻馅麻团,小时候路边的麻团没那么软的,还想吃烤羊肉串,甚至,我还想吃肯德基的原味鸡块,仅限中国店! |
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