江南布衣顾九

A rally in 3M following an analyst upgrade spurred the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a gain Wednesday, though investors generally shied from making bold bets heading into the end of the year.The fears about sovereign credit that drove a sharp market decline in the previous session faded. Surprisingly strong wholesale-inventory data boosted participants' mood, though many investors remained on guard against bad economic news that could surface in the days ahead.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 46 points, trading at 10331, recouping a small slice of its 104-point slide on Tuesday. 3M jumped 3.5% after the industrial bellwether was upgraded by Citigroup analysts to a "buy" rating from "hold."

 U.K. Treasury chief Alistair Darling said Wednesday the government will impose a one-time 50% charge on large bank bonuses, responding to increasingly sour public sentiment toward the banking sector in a largely neutral prebudget report.

Worries over finances of some of the world's governments rippled through financial markets Tuesday, as a series of negative credit-rating actions served as a reminder of the fragility of the global recovery.Fitch Ratings cut Greece's credit rating a notch to the lowest level in the 16-nation euro zone, raising concerns that Athens could be sparking the biggest fiscal crunch the European monetary union has faced in its 10 years. Moody's Investors Service sliced ratings even more on Dubai government-controlled companies, renewing worries about the Arab emirate. Moody's also said the U.K.'s rating would be at risk if it didn't lower its budget deficit.

Inventories of U.S. wholesalers unexpectedly increased in October, breaking a string of 13 declines and suggesting production will pick up. Wholesale inventories rose 0.3%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The mild increase came even with strong demand, indicating optimism among distributors over the economic recovery.Sales of U.S. wholesalers climbed in October by 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted $326.17 billion, the seventh straight increase.The 0.3% increase in inventories was the first since a 0.7% rise in August 2008. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a 0.6% drop in October wholesale inventories.

President Barack Obama pressed forward with an expansion of his $787 billion stimulus plan Tuesday, unveiling job-creation proposals that largely build on the initial package, including a hiring tax credit that his own party jettisoned as unworkable and some business owners deemed ineffective.In a speech at the Brookings Institution, Mr. Obama avoided calling his jobs push a new stimulus plan. But White House officials acknowledged that the president was taking stimulus components that he believed worked best and extending or amplifying them.

　　中国证监会党委书记、主席尚福林日前表示，当前和今后一个时期，证监会将深化各项改革创新，进一步完善有利于市场稳定运行的基础制度，抓好市场监管，充分发挥资本市场对经济的服务功能，为转变经济发展方式、调整经济结构、推进自主创新等全局性工作贡献力量。

　　央行行长周小川7日指出，2010年，央行将立足提高宏观调控水平，保持经济平稳较快发展，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，根据新形势新情况着力提高政策的针对性和灵活性，重点把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和重点，把握好货币信贷增长速度。

　　银监会主席刘明康8日表示，银监会将着力加强形势分析和研判，引导银行业切实优化信贷结构，提高信贷质量，促进经济结构调整和发展方式转变；着力加强监管，有效防范和化解银行业风险；着力加强对小企业和“三农”金融支持力度，努力提高银行业金融服务水平。

　　刘明康指出，要防止信贷集中度风险。

　　中国保监会党委书记、主席吴定富8日表示，保险业要更加注重提高发展的质量和效益，更加注重推动发展方式转变和结构调整，更加注重加强风险防范，更加注重推进改革创新，更加注重加强和改进监管，更加注重保护被保险人利益，不断拓宽领域，发挥功能，优化结构，提高供给能力和核心竞争力，努力实现又好又快发展。

　　12月8日，国家外汇管理局党组书记、局长易纲表示，要进一步完善外汇储备使用方式，保证外汇储备资产的安全性、流动性和保值增值；进一步深化外汇管理体制改革，不失时机地推进外汇管理重要领域和关键环节改革；做好跨境资金流动的监测与预警，维护国家经济金融安全。

　　总部设在菲律宾首都马尼拉的亚洲开发银行近日表示，计划投入７亿美元，为亚洲发展中经济体的清洁能源和适应气候变化项目提供融资。亚行说，这笔资金将来自“清洁技术基金”和“战略气候基金”。这两个基金由澳大利亚、法国、德国、日本、荷兰、挪威、西班牙、瑞士、瑞典、英国和美国在２００８年设立，认购股本为６１亿美元，包括亚行在内的国际多边金融机构有权提取资金为成员应对气候变化项目提供融资。“清洁技术基金”主要支持风能、太阳能、水电和地热发电等低碳能源技术的发展，同时也支持工业及城市节能政策的实施。这一基金以优惠贷款的形式向有需要的政府和私营部门项目提供融资，年利率为０．２５％，最高还款期限为４０年。

　　由食用油而起的食品价格涨价风，或许很快就会可能蔓延至其他一系列食品门类。来自业内的分析称，食用油价格的上涨周期“并未结束”，而乳制品价格上涨也许已“箭在弦上”。

　　深圳市规划国土委日前公布了《深圳市住房建设规划2010年度实施计划》（征求意见稿）。该计划提出，明年深圳计划建设各类住房9.52万套，与2009年度相比，总套数下降了23%左右。

　　据商务部监测，上周（１１月３０日至１２月６日）全国商品市场总体运行平稳。３６个大中城市重点监测的食用农产品市场价格比前一周上涨１％，生产资料市场价格比前一周上涨０．１％，涨幅回落０．６个百分点。　

　　12月8日，中国指数研究院一份房地产行业报告显示，11月全国主要城市住宅总成交面积环比上涨3.59%，成交面积环比上涨的城市有18个，占到统计总数的六成以上。当月土地市场供应放量，多城市迎来交易高峰。

Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. are wrestling with the U.S. government over how much capital the banks will be required to raise to exit from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to people familiar with the situation.The disagreements follow last week's announcement by the Treasury Department that Bank of America Corp. won approval to repay its $45 billion in federal aid. As part of its exit strategy, the Charlotte, N.C., bank then sold $19.29 billion in stock.

 President Barack Obama proposed small-business tax cuts, home retrofits and infrastructure investment as ways to accelerate job growth Tuesday, saying more programs are needed to boost the weak job market and ensure the recovery takes hold for Main Street.

Concerns about several countries' creditworthiness prompted a broad decline in stocks Tuesday, pushing the market into the red for December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 97 points or 0.9%, at 10292.84, trading 52 points below last month's close of 10344.84. Investors were spooked after Moody's Investors Service cut its ratings on a raft of Dubai government-controlled companies and Fitch Ratings downgraded its credit rating on Greece to triple-B-minus from single-A-minus, highlighting "concerns over the medium-term outlook for public finances given the weak credibility of fiscal institutions and the policy framework in Greece."

 In an effort to prevent a "double-dip" recession, Japan's new government unveiled an emergency stimulus package worth $80 billion, but critics said it still needs to provide a clear vision for reviving a country plagued by nearly two decades of economic malaise.

Consumer lending shrank 1.7% in October, the ninth consecutive drop, extending the dramatic decline of financing available to help fuel the U.S. economy.The $3.5 billion decline, calculated by the Federal Reserve, caps a 4% drop in consumer lending from its July 2008 peak. Before then, borrowing by U.S. consumers -- including credit-card debt and auto loans, but excluding mortgages -- had been growing for more than a half-century.Consumer activity accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic growth. Curtailed lending to consumers could hurt the chances for a strong recovery.

Morgan Stanley announced high-level management changes that include putting Chief Financial Officer Colm Kelleher and veteran banker Paul Taubman in charge of the company's largest division. The company also named senior financial-services banker Ruth Porat as chief financial officer to replace Mr. Kelleher and said Mitch Petrick, the current head of sales and trading, would step down from that role. The shuffle has been planned in recent weeks by James Gorman, who will take over as Morgan Stanley's chief executive Jan. 1.

Mortgage and credit-card delinquencies are expected to gradually retreat next year amid more-conservative lending standards as bad debt works its way off lenders' books, according to data from credit-information company TransUnion. However, some states hard-hit in the housing crisis will continue to see mortgage delinquencies increase, it said.

Frequently Asked Questions

It is a pleasure to speak once again before the Economic Club of Washington. Having faced the most serious financial crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression, our economy has made important progress during the past year. Although the economic stress faced by many families and businesses remains intense, with job openings scarce and credit still hard to come by, the financial system and the economy have moved back from the brink of collapse, economic growth has returned, and the signs of recovery have become more widespread.

Understandably, in a situation as complicated as this one, people have many questions about the current situation and the path forward. Accordingly, taking inspiration from the ubiquitous frequently-asked-questions lists, or FAQs, on Internet websites, in my remarks today I'd like to address four important FAQs about the economy and the Federal Reserve. They are:

1. Where is the economy headed?
2. What has the Federal Reserve been doing to support the economy and the financial system?
3. Will the Federal Reserve's actions lead to higher inflation down the road?
4. How can we avoid a similar crisis in the future?

Where Is the Economy Headed?
First, to understand where the economy might be headed, we should take a look at where it has been recently.¹ A year ago, our economy--indeed, all of the world's major economies--were reeling from the effects of a devastating financial crisis. Policymakers here and abroad had undertaken an extraordinary series of actions aimed at stabilizing the financial system and cushioning the economic impact of the crisis. Critically, these policy interventions succeeded in averting a global financial meltdown that could have plunged the world into a second Great Depression. But although a global economic cataclysm was avoided, the crisis nevertheless had widespread and severe economic consequences, including deep recessions in most of the world's major economies. In the United States, the unemployment rate, which was as low as 4.4 percent in March 2007, currently stands at 10 percent.

Recently we have seen some pickup in economic activity, reflecting, in part, the waning of some forces that had been restraining the economy during the preceding several quarters. The collapse of final demand that accelerated in the latter part of 2008 left many firms with excessive inventories of unsold goods, which in turn led them to cut production and employment aggressively. This phenomenon was especially evident in the motor vehicle industry, where automakers, a number of whom were facing severe financial pressures, temporarily suspended production at many plants. By the middle of this year, however, inventories had been sufficiently reduced to encourage firms in a wide range of industries to begin increasing output again, contributing to the recent upturn in the nation's gross domestic product (GDP).² 

Although the working down of inventories has encouraged production, a sustainable recovery requires renewed growth in final sales. It is encouraging that we have begun to see some evidence of stronger demand for homes and consumer goods and services. In the housing sector, sales of new and existing homes have moved up appreciably over the course of this year, and prices have firmed a bit. Meanwhile, the inventory of unsold new homes has been shrinking. Reflecting these developments, homebuilders have somewhat increased the rate of new construction--a marked change from the steep declines that have characterized the past few years.

Consumer spending also has been rising since midyear. Part of this increase reflected a temporary surge in auto purchases that resulted from the "cash for clunkers" program, but spending in categories other than motor vehicles has increased as well. In the business sector, outlays for new equipment and software are showing tentative signs of stabilizing, and improving economic conditions abroad have buoyed the demand for U.S. exports.

Though we have begun to see some improvement in economic activity, we still have some way to go before we can be assured that the recovery will be self-sustaining. Also at issue is whether the recovery will be strong enough to create the large number of jobs that will be needed to materially bring down the unemployment rate. Economic forecasts are subject to great uncertainty, but my best guess at this point is that we will continue to see modest economic growth next year--sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate, but at a pace slower than we would like.

A number of factors support the view that the recovery will continue next year. Importantly, financial conditions continue to improve: Corporations are having relatively little difficulty raising funds in the bond and stock markets, stock prices and other asset values have recovered significantly from their lows, and a variety of indicators suggest that fears of systemic collapse have receded substantially. Monetary and fiscal policies are supportive. And I have already mentioned what appear to be improving conditions in housing, consumer expenditure, business investment, and global economic activity.

On the other hand, the economy confronts some formidable headwinds that seem likely to keep the pace of expansion moderate. Despite the general improvement in financial conditions, credit remains tight for many borrowers, particularly bank-dependent borrowers such as households and small businesses. And the job market, though no longer contracting at the pace we saw in 2008 and earlier this year, remains weak. Household spending is unlikely to grow rapidly when people remain worried about job security and have limited access to credit.

Inflation is affected by a number of crosscurrents. High rates of resource slack are contributing to a slowing in underlying wage and price trends, and longer-run inflation expectations are stable. Commodities prices have risen lately, likely reflecting the pickup in global economic activity and the depreciation of the dollar. Although we will continue to monitor inflation closely, on net it appears likely to remain subdued for some time.

What Has the Federal Reserve Been Doing to Support the Economy and the Financial System?

The discussion of where the economy is headed brings us to our second question: What has the Federal Reserve been doing to support the economy and the financial system?

The Federal Reserve has been, and still is, doing a great deal to foster financial stability and to spur recovery in jobs and economic activity.³ Notably, we began the process of easing monetary policy in September 2007, shortly after the crisis began. By mid-December 2008, our target rate was effectively as low as it could go--within a range of 0 to 1/4 percent, compared with 5-1/4 percent before the crisis--and we have maintained that very low rate for the past year.

Our efforts to support the economy have gone well beyond conventional monetary policy, however. I have already alluded to the Federal Reserve's close cooperation with the Treasury, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and other domestic and foreign authorities in a concerted and ultimately successful effort to stabilize the global banking system, which verged on collapse following the extraordinary events of September and October 2008. We subsequently took strong measures, independently or in conjunction with other agencies, to help normalize key financial institutions and credit markets disrupted by the crisis. Among these were the money market mutual fund industry, in which large numbers of American households, businesses, and municipalities make short-term investments; and the commercial paper market, which many firms tap to finance their day-to-day operations. We also established and subsequently expanded special arrangements with other central banks to provide dollars to global funding markets, as we found that disruptions in dollar-based markets abroad were spilling over to our own markets.

More recently, we have played an important part in helping to re-start the markets for asset-backed securities that finance auto loans, credit card loans, small business loans, student loans, loans to finance commercial real estate, and other types of credit. By working to revive these markets, which allow banks to tap the broader securities markets to finance their lending, we have helped banks make room on their balance sheets for new credit to households and businesses. In addition, we have supported the overall functioning of private credit markets and helped to lower interest rates on bonds, mortgages, and other loans by purchasing unprecedented volumes of mortgage-related securities and Treasury debt.

In all of these efforts, our objective has not been to support specific financial institutions or markets for their own sake. Rather, recognizing that a healthy economy requires well-functioning financial markets, we have moved always with the single aim of promoting economic recovery and economic opportunity. In that respect, our means and goals have been fully consistent with the traditional functions of a central bank and with the mandate given to the Federal Reserve by the Congress to promote price stability and maximum employment.

In addition to easing monetary policy and acting to stabilize financial markets, we have worked in our role as a bank supervisor to encourage bank lending. In November 2008 we joined with other banking regulators to urge banks to continue lending to creditworthy borrowers--to the benefit of both the economy and the banks--and we have recently provided guidelines to banks for working constructively with troubled commercial real estate loans.⁴ This spring, we led a coordinated, comprehensive examination of 19 of the country's largest banks, an exercise formally known as the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program, or SCAP, but more informally as the "stress test." This assessment was designed to ensure that these banks, which collectively hold about two-thirds of the assets of the banking system, would remain well capitalized and able to lend to creditworthy borrowers even if economic conditions turned out to be even worse than expected. The release of the assessment results in May provided sorely needed clarity about the banks' condition and marked a turning point in the restoration of confidence in our banking system.⁵ In the months since then, and with the strong encouragement of the federal banking supervisors, many of these largest institutions have raised billions of dollars in new capital, improving their ability to withstand possible future losses and to extend loans as demand for credit recovers. Meanwhile, we have also continued our efforts to ensure fair treatment for the customers of financial firms. During the past year and a half, we have comprehensively overhauled the regulations protecting mortgage borrowers, credit card holders, and users of overdraft protection plans, among others.

In navigating through the crisis, the Federal Reserve has been greatly aided by the regional structure established by the Congress when it created the Federal Reserve in 1913. The more than 270 business people, bankers, nonprofit executives, academics, and community, agricultural, and labor leaders who serve on the boards of the 12 Reserve Banks and their 24 Branches provide valuable insights into current economic and financial conditions that statistics alone cannot. Thus, the structure of the Federal Reserve ensures that our policymaking is informed not just by a Washington perspective, or a Wall Street perspective, but also a Main Street perspective. Indeed, our Reserve Banks and Branches have deep roots in the nation's communities and do much good work there. They have, to give just a couple of examples, assisted organizations specializing in foreclosure mitigation and worked with nonprofit groups to help stabilize neighborhoods hit by high rates of foreclosure. They (as well as the Board) are also much involved in financial and economic education, helping people to make better financial decisions and to better understand how the economy works.

All told, the Federal Reserve's actions--in combination with those of other policymakers here and abroad--have helped restore financial stability and pull the economy back from the brink. Because of our programs, auto buyers have obtained loans they would not have otherwise obtained, college students are financing their educations through credit they otherwise likely would not have received, and home buyers have secured mortgages on more affordable and sustainable terms than they would have otherwise. These improvements in credit conditions in turn are supporting a broader economic recovery.

Will the Federal Reserve's Actions Lead to Higher Inflation Down the Road?
The scope and scale of our actions, however, while necessary and helpful in my view, have left some uneasy. In all, our asset purchases and lending have caused the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to more than double, from less than $900 billion before the crisis began to about $2.2 trillion today. Unprecedented balance sheet expansion and near-zero overnight interest rates raise our third frequently asked question: Will the Federal Reserve's actions to combat the crisis lead to higher inflation down the road?

The answer is no; the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so. In the near term, elevated unemployment and stable inflation expectations should keep inflation subdued, and indeed, inflation could move lower from here. However, as the recovery strengthens, the time will come when it is appropriate to begin withdrawing the unprecedented monetary stimulus that is helping to support economic activity. For that reason, we have been giving careful thought to our exit strategy. We are confident that we have all the tools necessary to withdraw monetary stimulus in a timely and effective way.⁶ 

Indeed, our balance sheet is already beginning to adjust, because improving financial conditions are leading to substantially reduced use of our lending facilities. The balance sheet will also shrink over time as the mortgage-backed securities and other assets we hold mature or are prepaid. However, even if our balance sheet stays large for a while, we will be able to raise our target short-term interest rate--which is the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight--and thus tighten financial conditions appropriately.

Operationally, an important tool for adjusting the stance of monetary policy will be the authority, granted to us by the Congress last year, to pay banks interest on balances they hold at the Federal Reserve. When the time comes to raise short-term interest rates and thereby tighten policy, we can do so by raising the rate that we offer banks on their balances with us. Banks will be unwilling to make overnight loans to each other at a rate lower than the rate that they can earn risk-free from the Fed, and so the interest rate we pay on banks' balances will tend to set a floor below our target overnight loan rate and other short-term interest rates.

Additional upward pressure on short-term interest rates can be achieved by measures to reduce the supply of funds that banks have available to lend to each other. We have a number of tools to accomplish this. For example, through the use of a short-term funding method known as reverse repurchase agreements, we can act directly to reduce the quantity of reserves held by the banking system. By paying a slightly higher rate of interest, we could induce banks to lock up their balances in longer-term accounts with us, making those balances unavailable for lending in the overnight market. And, if necessary, we always have the option of reducing the size of our balance sheet by selling some of our securities holdings on the open market.

As always, the most difficult challenge for the Federal Open Market Committee will not be devising the technical means of unwinding monetary stimulus. Rather, it will be the challenge that faces central banks in every economic recovery, which is correctly judging the best time to tighten policy. Because monetary policy affects the economy with a lag, we will need to base our decision on our best forecast of how the economy will develop. As I said a few moments ago, we currently expect inflation to remain subdued for some time. It is also reassuring that longer-term inflation expectations appear stable. Nevertheless, we will keep a close eye on inflation risks and will do whatever is necessary to meet our mandate to foster both price stability and maximum employment.

How Can We Avoid a Similar Crisis in the Future?
As we at the Federal Reserve and others work to build on the progress already made toward securing a sustained economic recovery with price stability, we must also continue to address the weaknesses that led to the current crisis. Thus, our final question this afternoon is: How can we avoid a similar crisis in the future?⁷ 

Although the sources of the crisis were extraordinarily complex and numerous, a fundamental cause was that many financial firms simply did not appreciate the risks they were taking. Their risk-management systems were inadequate and their capital and liquidity buffers insufficient. Unfortunately, neither the firms nor the regulators identified and remedied many of the weaknesses soon enough. Thus, all financial regulators, including the Federal Reserve, must undertake unsparing self-assessments. At the Federal Reserve, we have extensively reviewed our performance and moved to strengthen our oversight of banks. Working cooperatively with other agencies, we are toughening our banking regulations to help constrain excessive risk-taking and enhance the ability of banks to withstand financial stress. For example, we have been among the leaders of international efforts, through organizations such as the Basel Committee on Bank Supervision, to increase the quantities of capital and liquidity that banks must hold. At home, we are implementing standards that require banking organizations to adopt compensation policies that link pay to the institutions' long-term performance and avoid encouraging excessive risk-taking.

I mentioned the SCAP, otherwise known as the stress tests. We are applying the lessons learned in that exercise to reorient our approach to the supervision of large, interconnected banking organizations that are critical to the stability of the financial system. In particular, we are taking a more "macroprudential" approach, one that goes beyond supervisors' traditional focus on the health of individual institutions and scrutinizes the interrelationships among firms and markets to better anticipate sources of financial contagion. To do that, we are expanding our use of the kind of simultaneous and comparative cross-firm examinations that we used to such good effect in the SCAP. The Federal Reserve's ability to draw on a range of disciplines--using economists, market experts, accountants, and lawyers, in addition to bank examiners--was essential to the success of the SCAP, and a multidisciplinary approach will be a central feature of our supervision in the future. For example, we are complementing our traditional onsite examinations with enhanced off-site surveillance programs, under which multidisciplinary teams will combine supervisory information, firm-specific data analysis, and market-based indicators to identify problems that may affect one or more banking institutions.

Although regulators can do a great deal on their own to improve financial oversight, the Congress also must act to fix gaps and weaknesses in the structure of the regulatory system and, in so doing, address the very serious problem posed by firms perceived as "too big to fail." No firm, by virtue of its size and complexity, should be permitted to hold the financial system, the economy, or the American taxpayer hostage. To eliminate that possibility, a number of steps are required.

First, all systemically important financial institutions, not only banks, should be subject to strong and comprehensive supervision on a consolidated, or firmwide, basis. Such institutions should be subject to tougher capital, liquidity, and risk-management requirements than other firms--both to reduce their chance of failing and to remove their incentive to grow simply in order to be perceived as too big to fail. Neither AIG, an insurance company, nor Bear Stearns, an investment firm, was subject to strong consolidated supervision. The Federal Reserve, as the regulator of bank holding companies, already supervises many of the largest and most complex institutions in the world. That experience, together with our broad knowledge of the financial markets, makes us well suited to serve as the consolidated supervisor for systemically important nonbank institutions as well. In addition, our involvement in supervision is critical for ensuring that we have the necessary expertise, information, and authorities to carry out our essential functions of promoting financial stability and making monetary policy.

Second, when a systemically important institution does approach failure, government policymakers must have an option other than a bailout or a disorderly, confidence-shattering bankruptcy. The Congress should create a new resolution regime, analogous to the regime currently used by the FDIC for failing banks, that would permit the government to wind down a troubled systemically important firm in a way that protects financial stability but that also imposes losses on shareholders and creditors of the failed firm, without costs to the taxpayer. Imposing losses on creditors of troubled, systemically critical firms would help address the too-big-to-fail problem by restoring market discipline and leveling the playing field for smaller firms, while minimizing the disruptive effects of a failure on the financial system and the economy.

Third, our regulatory structure requires a better mechanism for monitoring and addressing emerging risks to the financial system as a whole. Because of the size, diversity, and complexity of our financial system, that task may exceed the capacity of any individual agency. The Federal Reserve therefore supports the creation of a systemic oversight council, made up of the principal financial regulators, to identify developments that may pose systemic risks, recommend approaches for dealing with them, and coordinate the responses of its member agencies.

Conclusion
In closing, I will again note that in the fall of last year, the United States, indeed the world, confronted a financial crisis of a magnitude unseen for generations. Concerted actions by the Federal Reserve and other policymakers here and abroad helped avoid the worst outcomes. Nevertheless, the turmoil dealt a severe blow to our economy from which we have only recently begun to recover. The improvement in financial conditions this year and the resumption of growth over the summer offer the hope and expectation of continued recovery in the new year. However, significant headwinds remain, including tight credit conditions and a weak job market.

The Federal Reserve has been aggressive in its efforts to stabilize our financial system and to support economic activity. At some point, however, we will need to unwind our accommodative policies in order to avoid higher inflation in the future. I am confident we have both the tools and the commitment to make that adjustment when it is needed and in a manner consistent with our mandate to foster employment and price stability.

In the meantime, financial firms must do a better job of managing the risks of their business, regulators--the Federal Reserve included--must complete a thoroughgoing overhaul of their approach to supervision, and the Congress should move forward in making needed changes to our system of financial regulation to avoid a similar crisis in the future. In particular, we must solve the problem of "too big to fail."

In sum, we have come a long way from the darkest period of the crisis, but we have some distance yet to go. In the midst of some of the toughest days, in October 2008, I said in a speech that I was confident that the American economy, with its great intrinsic vitality, would emerge from that period with renewed vigor.⁸ I remain equally confident today.

A modest gain in the stock market dried up Monday afternoon as investors welcomed soothing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke but fretted about the weakness in the U.S. economy that has prompted the central bank to keep interest rates low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 10 points to 10374. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 1102, hurt by a 1.7% decline in the financial sector. The index's strongest category was telecommunications, up 1.7% thanks in part to a 10.6% surge in Sprint Nextel after Barron's reported that the carrier is well positioned to meet rising demand for prepaid calling services.

The trend of employment in the U.S. strengthened for the fourth consecutive month, according to a report released Monday.The Conference Board said that its November employment trends index rose to 90.8 from a revised 89.2 in October, which was originally reported as 89.3. The November reading was the highest since March 2009 but was down 9.4% from a year earlier.

　　12月5日，澳大利亚两大矿业巨头力拓与必和必拓就成立铁矿石生产合资公司签订了约束性协议，预计将于2010年下半年完成组建工作。分析人士指出，若这家覆盖“两拓”在西澳大利亚州全部铁矿石资产的合资企业顺利开始运营，国内钢企将面临更为严峻的价格压力。而这种压力将倒逼国内钢企在明年加速兼并整合，以提高行业集中度。

　　国家统计局总经济师姚景源在6日召开的第二届亚洲财富论坛年会上表示，今年我国经济已经出现“V”型反转，全年保八毫无悬念，明年经济工作重点将是调结构。姚景源分析，调结构包括三方面内容，即生产结构、需求结构和增长方式的调整。从生产结构来看，姚景源指出，目前，我国经济增长主要依靠第二产业，未来应当把经济增长调整为一、二、三产业全面支撑经济增长的格局，其中，“特别要发挥第三产业的作用。”具体到需求结构，姚景源认为，投资、消费、出口这三驾马车是否能够并驾齐驱，也是未来调整经济结构的重点之一。“我国经济长时间靠出口、投资这两驾马车，所以接下去一定要将之调整成消费、投资、出口拉动经济的结构。”姚景源强调，特别要发挥消费对经济的拉动作用。从增长方式上看，姚景源分析，我国经济发展应该由过去的依赖物质资源投入，调整为依赖科技进步，劳动者素质提高上来。

　　兖州煤业今日披露，12月3日收到国家发改委批复，同意兖州煤业收购澳大利亚菲利克斯资源有限公司（Felix Resources Limited）100%股权项目。

　　就在外界几乎一致看涨白酒价格之际，贵州茅台今日表示，由于产品原辅材料价格上涨、市场供求状况以及企业发展战略需要等因素，公司决定自2010年1月1日起适当上调贵州茅台酒出厂价格，平均上调幅度约为13％。公司认为，此次价格调整将会对公司2010年经营业绩产生一定的影响。